Assessing the impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice yield at nkhate irrigation scheme in Chikwawa District.

Abstract

Background: Most of African nations including Malawi rely on rain fed agriculture and Malawi’s economy highly depends on agriculture, this makes Malawi to be severely affected by any slight variation in climate. This main objective was accompanied by the following specific objectives; (1) Assessing rainfall and temperature trends in Livunzu EPA, (2) Assessing the annual rice yield of Nkhate rice scheme, (3) correlating temperature and rainfall variations with the rice yield. Methods: A quantitative research design was adopted for this study. The study was conducted exclusively at Nkhate rice scheme located in Chikhwawa District. The study used historical data of temperature, rainfall, and rice yield. Statistical analysis, including regression and correlation, was conducted using R software to examine the relationship between climatic variables and rice yield. Findings: Results from the regression and correlation analysis showed that rainfall exhibited some degree of correlation with rice yield; however, the relationship was not statistically strong. In addition, no significant correlation was found between annual minimum and maximum temperatures and rice yield. These findings suggest that while rainfall does affect rice production, other factors may also play a role, and temperature variations alone do not significantly affect yields in this context. Conclusion: This study highlights important insights into rice production under climate variability. While rice cultivation generally requires ample water, excessive rainfall - especially during sensitive stages such as pollination - can negatively impact yields. The findings underscore the importance of understanding not only the quantity but also the timing of rainfall, as well as the need for adaptive agricultural strategies to cope with changing climate patterns in rainfed systems such as in Malawi.