Spatial pathways of blue carbon: Mangrove connectivity, climate resilience, and sustainable economies

Abstract

Background:  Climate change remains one of the most pressing environmental challenges, affecting ecological stability, social systems, and economic sustainability worldwide. Among nature-based mitigation strategies, blue carbon ecosystems, particularly mangroves, play a crucial role in absorbing atmospheric carbon. However, the spatial link between mangrove connectivity and atmospheric gas concentration remains poorly understood in Indonesia, despite its vast mangrove coverage. This study explores the spatial interactions between mangrove vegetation health, atmospheric gas distribution, and their implications for regional climate resilience and sustainable coastal development, a landscape characterized by the coexistence of oil, aquaculture, and mangrove ecosystems. Methods: Using a quantitative spatial approach, this research integrates Sentinel-2 Surface Reflectance (COPERNICUS/S2_SR) and Sentinel-5P Level-3 (COPERNICUS/S5P/OFFL/L3_NO2 and L3_CO) datasets within the Google Earth Engine platform. Vegetation conditions were assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Mangrove Vegetation Index (MVI), while atmospheric conditions were evaluated through tropospheric NO₂ and CO densities from 2019 to 2024. Cloud masking, compositing, and band stacking produced annual composites. Statistical correlation and spatial overlay analyses were conducted to examine vegetation–gas interactions across administrative boundaries, followed by visualization and descriptive validation. Findings: The results revealed strong negative correlations between NDVI–NO₂ (r = −0.61) and NDVI–CO (r = −0.48), indicating that healthier mangrove stands correspond with lower atmospheric gas concentrations. High NDVI and MVI areas, particularly near tidal estuaries, exhibited reduced emissions, whereas fragmented inland mangroves near industrial zones recorded higher gas densities. Temporal analysis between 2019 and 2024 showed an increasing vegetation trend alongside declining NO₂ levels, suggesting positive ecological recovery. Conclusion: This research demonstrates that maintaining spatially connected mangrove ecosystems strengthens local carbon regulation and supports Indonesia’s low-carbon development pathways. Novelty/Originality of this article: The study introduces a novel spatial framework linking Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-5P datasets to quantify vegetation–atmosphere interactions, providing the first regional-scale evidence of mangrove connectivity’s role in atmospheric gas mitigation.